arrow-circle arrow-long-stroke arrow-stroke arrow-thick arrow-thin arrow-triangle icon 2 baseballCreated with Sketch. basketball calendar category check-circle check-square check comment facebook-circle facebook-icon facebook-rounded facebook-square facebook-stroke football instagram-circle instagram-icon instagram-square long-arrow-right rss-circle rss-rounded rss-square rss-stroke rss twitter-circle twitter-icon twitter-rounded twitter-square twitter-stroke user-group user

Will the Gus Bus Fly in 2017?

By on August 14th, 2017 in Football, News 10 Comments »
Gus_gfjchbny_er3133vm

With fall camp progressing slower than I would like, Gus Malzahn has stayed coy on whether or not he’s leaning towards one quarterback or another to be named as the starter. Malik Willis has actually received most of the specific praise Malzahn has given out in his post-scrimmage and post-practice news conferences. This year Gus’ decision on who will start is more important than ever. Auburn’s stable of young, talented receivers seem primed for a breakout performance, but another disappointing season could send his detractors into an uproar. 

So what should our realistic expectations be for this season regarding the passing offense? Gus has certainly established a reputation for his offenses moving the ball extremely well on the ground, and coaches almost always maintain a certain loyalty to their strengths in play calling and offensive strategy. However, I think the addition of offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey and offensive analyst Al Borges could really make a significant impact on the identity of the offense this season. So let’s take a look at how the Gus Bus could take flight in 2017. 

But first let’s look at the total passing offense for each season Gus Malzahn has been at Auburn:
2009 – 2,857 yards (Chris Todd)
2010 – 3,002 yards (Cam Newton)
2011 – 2,022 yards (Barrett Trotter/Clint Moseley)
2013 – 2,422 yards (Nick Marshall)
2014 – 2,984 yards (Nick Marshall)
2015 – 2,257 yards (Jeremy Johnson/Sean White)
2016 – 2,203 yards (Sean White)

The first thing that jumped out to me here was just how productive Nick Marshall was in his two seasons with Auburn. I had no idea he came close to throwing for 3,000 yards in his second season. That’s a true testament to Malzahn’s ability to adapt to his personnel and opposing strategies. 

Second, how good was Chris Todd in 2009? His single season at quarterback is arguably one of the most under-appreciated in Auburn history. 

Third, I noticed is the sharp decline in passing offense since the 2014 season. Although the 2013 offense posted similar stats through the air, the running game more than made up for those “missing” yards. 

Finally, as the personnel brought in by Malzahn filtered in and Tuberville’s recruits filtered out, the passing yardages seem to depreciate a bit when someone not named Newton or Marshall was running the offense. This could be coincidence or a direct result of lack-luster quarterback play, but I think it’s a fair point to make. Malzahn has seemed to struggle at times getting receivers involved in the offense. 

Having said that, how well has Auburn distributed the ball to their receivers under Malzahn? 
Below, I’ll list the number of receivers with double-digit receptions in each of Malzahn’s seven seasons:
2009 – 6
2010 – 6
2011 – 6
2013 – 6
2014 – 8
2015 – 9
2016 – 8

I honestly thought this number would drop as seasons progressed but they’ve actually been on the rise. Maybe Malzahn isn’t as bad at distributing the ball as I thought. He still seemingly refuses to acknowledge the tight end position—the most receiving yards a tight end has had under Malzahn is Philip Lutzenkirchen in 2011 with 238 yards—but the effort to distribute receptions has been there.

With these figures in mind, this is a number that could drop drastically in 2017. I could see the group of receivers having receptions in double digits be as little as four or five guys. And maybe that’s the trend we need to see. The current stable of receivers is easily the most talented in a decade or more. Malzahn may not have to look much further than Nate Craig-Myers, Eli Stove, Kyle Davis, and Ryan Davis to find the answer he needs in the passing game. 

Of the current group of receivers, who stands the best chance at being key contributors? 

This is a list that could be as long or short as the coaches want to make it (without sacrificing success).
The easy group to highlight would include, in no particular order:

Nate Craig-Myers
Eli Stove
Kyle Davis
Ryan Davis

After that, the list gets trickier as there are many wildcards:

John Franklin III – Having seen his ball-control issues, I think the chances of JF3 making a huge impact catching the ball is very low. I expect him to play, and serve as a decoy in many cases, but the times he is targeted will likely be limited to screens, the occasional reverse, or running the jet sweep. 

Will Hastings – Tremendous athletic ability and has seen limited action in his time on the Plains thus far, but is someone I really think could have a breakout season. 

Jalen Harris – *Sigh,* I know he’s a tight end but this could be the year we see big things for this position. Especially in red zone situations. If I ran into Chip Lindsey on the street today, the first thing I would ask him is what role the tight end(s) would be playing in his offense this season. 

Sal Cannella – JUCO transfer, basketball background, from Chicago, long blonde hair, tattoos—basically this guy has swag and the athletic ability to back it up. He’s received high praise since arriving in Auburn and has taken a lot of reps with the receivers as well as tight-ends/H-backs. Of the four guys listed here, I think he has the best chance at becoming a household name to people who don’t follow Auburn that closely. 

But what about the quarterback? Doesn’t that matter? Yes and No.

I’m comfortable with what Sean White brings to the table at this point. His health will always be a concern, but honestly I think Auburn is in a much better position this year as far as offensive weapons go. This will greatly limit White’s exposure to injury compared to last season. 

Jarrett Stidham could very well be the quarterback of fans’ dreams, but I’m still throttling my expectations a bit. Not out of disrespect to him, but I’m a bit jaded from previous quarterback expectations. Anything Stidham can bring to the table that makes him more effective than White will be a bonus for me. Now, do I expect him to be named the starter? Yes, I do. I don’t see Gus bringing in a quarterback to sit the bench. 

That leaves Malik Willis, and this is where things get interesting. I sincerely believe he could set up some significant playing time for himself this season. He’s the quarterback mentioned most by Gus this fall, and his athletic ability has to have Malzahn drooling on the sidelines. As much as I criticize Malzahn and his ‘packages’ at times, this could be the one case where that could be warranted. 

Final thoughts—What will 2017 look like? 

From the solid group of quarterbacks to the impressive roster of receivers, Auburn seems poised to have one of its most productive seasons in history throwing the football. In fact, I think it could be one we’ll remember for quite some time. I normally try to avoid pumping too much sunshine, but a lack of production this season would be hard to fathom and equally as hard to accomplish, given how much talent is present. 

I predict the group of receivers with double-digit receptions will be five and that Auburn will pass for 3,000+ yards in 2017. Auburn could certainly find success in other ways, but to attain the lofty heights that many think they are capable of, they will have to be able to get things done both running and passing. A high-powered pass attack puts them in the position of challenging Alabama for the SEC West title. 

10 Comments

  1. DBAU81 says:

    Two things. First, Marquis McClain could be a contributor this year at a wide receiver slot. He has the size and athleticism to do it. Second, all the cat-and-mouse about the so-called QB competition is out of respect for Sean White, which he deserves. But Stidham will be the starter. We’ve already seen the maximum that Sean can do. Willis has a much higher upside and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up being the second team guy. He’s simply performed too well for the coaches to ignore.

  2. Tigerstripe Tigerstripe says:

    Hoping Chip will find unique ways to get the ball to JF3 in open space. I think the over/under for JF3 passing the ball off of a reverse, jet sweep or lateral will be 3 for the season…I hope we keep up tempo

    • Derrick Roberts Derrick Roberts says:

      I could take or leave JF3 honestly. Anything he adds will be a bonus. We have other speed options. His ball security makes me a little nervous. But maybe he’s cleared that up in the offseason. I know he’s been working very hard to get in better shape.

  3. neonbets says:

    Great stuff, Derrick. Your post highlights that we’re finally going to get some resolution on all the Gus Fuss.
    It’s put up or shut up time. As a Gus supporter, if this offense sputters, even I’ll have to admit: it’s going to be hard to defend him going forward. There’s just too much talent here.
    If, however, the offense takes flight (as many expect), then even the Gus Haters will have to tip their hats.
    It’s gonna be interesting.

  4. AtkinsonTiger AtkinsonTiger says:

    Great post Derrick!

    I’m thinking Sal Cannella may burst on the scene but when the chips are down Will Hastings could be Stidham’s favorite target. But I’m excited about all the receiver options.

    • WarSamEagle WarSamEagle says:

      Agree, very good post Derrick. Thanks for the read.

    • Derrick Roberts Derrick Roberts says:

      Thank you thank you! Your positive thoughts make it all worth the effort. We have the best readers on the web. Hopefully this week, I’ll be able to announce and debut a new feature to the site to enhance everyone’s experience. Stay tuned!

  5. ATL_AU_FAN ATL_AU_FAN says:

    Well, CGM has just named Stidham as the starting QB —

  6. […] Stidham should have a great opportunity to prove he’s worthy of such high expectations with a talented cast of receivers and a backfield that includes Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon […]

Post A Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.