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Looking At Our Chances

By on October 22nd, 2013 in Football 13 Comments »
Fearless and True at home or away.

Fearless and True at home or away.

In a post by WDE1988 titled The Polls Are In!!! We looked into the current college football rankings. That brought to mind the thought of what might need to happen for Auburn to have any shot at the BCS Championship game.

Here is the way I see it, for what that’s worth…

Of the eight undefeated teams ahead of us right now, we only play two of them (possibly) “if” we win out.

Ohio State will win out, they have too soft a schedule to think that anyone left on it will challenge them. We can hope, but that’s about all. I said this last year near the end of the season, worth repeating that Ohio State gets the media love because the media is tired of the SEC being the big dog. Add to the fact that Urban Meyer has won a BCS title while coaching in the SEC. Little will be mentioned about that skirt and tacky nails schedule that the Buckeyes play. I don’t even care if anyone in the B1G gets mad at me for that, they play a lousy brand of football, PERIOD!

FSU can win out, but they actually have a tougher schedule than OSU. If the ‘Noles were to win out, they would deserve a shot at the title. FSU and Miami play each other, maybe twice if they meet again in the ACC Championship game, and that should do away with at least one of them.

Same for Oregon. The PAC-12 is better than any other conference outside of the SEC. Oregon State is clearly better, and Stanford will usually play the Ducks a tough game.

As far as the SEC goes, if bama and Mizzou win out, one will lose in the SEC Championship game. Auburn winning out would mean the BCS Sugar Bowl, and trust me, that would be reaching incredible heights after the last two seasons. A BCS Championship appearance would take monumental disasters by several teams for a one-loss AU to make the Championship game. We just don’t have the luck of bama to have that many teams implode and make way for AU to step in.

That leaves the Baylor Bears, and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Sorry to disappoint any of those fans, you could win out, and unless every team ahead of you loses, you will not get the consideration for the BCS title game.

The Big 12 this season is almost as bad as the B1G, not something to brag about I assure you. The problem for these two teams is that they are now getting into the toughest part of their collective schedules, just as most conferences are doing. Tech could lose to another conference team, and then win the game vs. Baylor which would effectively eliminate both teams. Or vice-verse.

Not an impossibility, but I don’t like our chances right now. Until next time,

WAR EAGLE!

13 Comments

  1. MyAuburn MyAuburn says:

    You are right Kool, we have no chance to make the BCS championship game. We do have a great chance to get to the Iron Bowl 10-1 playing a 11-0 Bammer team. That in itself would be monumental. I would dearly love to be the team to put Oregon and Fla St. in the NCG and leave Bammer wondering what the hell happened.

  2. AUJTJarhead AUJTJarhead says:

    Gentlemen…..

    Lets reconsider this. IF we defeat Alabama (#1) and then go on to defeat Missouri (probably #4) then the computers will give us our due. No one else will have defeated so many highly ranked teams. And, IF we win the NC, the updykes will die.

    • KoolBell KoolBell says:

      I like what you are saying, believe me I do. It’s just that there are EIGHT undefeated teams ahead of us as we dare dream these thoughts. Tall odds for sure.

      • MyAuburn MyAuburn says:

        Only Ohio State, Oregon, and Fla St. have the clout to knock us out of that scenario. It won’t happen but if the moon is in the right phase, it could.
        The other undefeated teams would never pass a one loss SEC team.
        If the impossible actually happens, all the Bammers I have that I call friends will hate me forever.

  3. Third Generation Tiger Third Generation Tiger says:

    This team has some serious mojo now. Dare I say even with some key media sources.

  4. aub5710 says:

    I am loving the season so far and the work and insane progression by our team, as well as relishing in the victory over aTm, but we need to take care of FAU first and then move on to the next game. It seems like alot of the media and blogs (this blog being my favorite by far) are prognosticating too much after our latest win. I am all for getting our alumni and fanbase riled up and pumped up, but ready to take care of business this weekend before the supersized “Amen Corner”.

  5. wde1988 wde1988 says:

    Love the picture!

    I will let the statisticians worry about the how. I have said many times i m a pessimist by nature. I worry first about the razorbacks, then the volunteers, followed by the leg-humpers.

    Worrying about a championship now is sort of like pondering the national debt crisis. Oops. Didn’t Mean to go there.

    WDE

  6. Tiger on the mountain Tiger on the mountain says:

    One Saturday at a time, you guys. One Saturday at a time.

  7. Pine Mt Tiger Pine Mt Tiger says:

    Hey Kool, Your one of my favs at TET. I always enjoy reading your post and I’ve been missing you around here. Having said that, I think it’s way to early to have this discussion…….. Of course it would be totally awesome if it came true!

    • KoolBell KoolBell says:

      First, thanks so much for the kind words. I have felt that there are some really great writers on this staff that Jay has put together, least of which is myself.

      Two reasons for this post.
      1. The topic came up nationally on the “Tim Brando Show” I thought it was a viable topic for fans to discuss especially since…

      2. The first BCS poll was released and Auburn was first in line to move into the Top 10 when the next team falls out of their current position. Since we are still playing for BCS Championships, and next year will be a different system, might as well get the discussion started.

      I am sure that this team will take the approach that they have to address one opponent at a time, as they should, although Dee Ford talked with Phillip Marshall earlier this week, and said this:
      “We try to block it out, but I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t know we are No. 11 in the nation,” Ford said. “That’s pretty huge. We definitely want to enjoy the moment, enjoy the feeling and know this is only temporary. We have to keep working, stay focused and keep our composure.

      “Malzahn said we’re not going to do anything different. We’re just going to keep working and keep fighting.”

  8. Jonathon Jonathon says:

    Ahhh, it’s nice to drink the kool-aid and actually taste ‘victory.’
    It seems as though the Auburn family has their eyes wide open with a glitter of that crystal ball in the distance. That A&M win was Huge and as it played out my personal thoughts were on winning out and any possibility that we could play for it all. Now that the dust has settled I too think it’s a long stretch, mainly because we had too steep of a ranking hill to climb (not that a 3 win season would have had you preseason ranked anywhere near the top 25). But it’s that stupid (stupid when your not in it) preseason ranking that Kills a lot of dreams before they have started.

    Why We Should Be Ranked Higher Than 11th:
    – #10 Texas Tech has played one ranked opponent, #24 TCU (who is currently 3-4). Their “quality” opponents combined wins total 11 – none of those opponents even have a winning record. That’s weak.
    – #9 Clemson beat #5 UGA out of the gate [slow clap], and got Ripped, Ripped by FSU. In between they beat one opponent with a winning record – wait for it, wait for it, Wake Forest at 4-3.
    – #8 Baylor – In case the country forgot RGIII is gone. You say ‘okay, so?, they are undefeated!’, fine – let’s pick out the winning record teams they have played amongst their “quality” opponents, One, Buffalo (?). Meh.
    – #7 Miami – THE U!! – okay I’ll settle down. They beat Florida. Okay, surely that one win over a now 4-3 Florida is their signature win that trumps anyone below them. Well they are undefeated y’know – GaTech was their other quality win since they too are 4-3. They should have prayed for a bowl ban this year because if they get matched with a real opponent it won’t be pretty.
    – #6 Stan.. wait, they are 6-1 like Auburn AND ranked 6th, Stanford? Okay, Okay they beat Three ranked opponents – but that loss to unranked Utah kinda stinks.
    – TOP 5 – Okay maybe Auburn isn’t Top 5 material just yet, I mean Mizzou has, wait, who have they beaten? Oh yeah, they got that recognition for kicking UGA while they were down and out then beat a slumping Florida team. I guess their first formidable opponent, Vandy, helped skyrocket them into National prominence. Kudos for joining the SEC and leapfrogging folks because of it.

    Well what has Auburn really done thus far to warrant such a rant on those teams? Auburn’s “quality” opponents have racked up 22 wins. Zero have a losing record. We lost to LSU (who was touted as likely the best team in the SEC) in the freaking Rain! We’d love to have that one back. We put Ole Miss to bed when they were the ‘it’ team of the SEC and being cradled like a newborn baby as the next coming of All that is SEC Football. Then we beat Johnny Football – and Bama fans thought they were the only ones that could… silly Elephants.

    War Eagle! I was a skeptical MoFo when Gus was hired but I bought my Gus Bus tickets preseason and am glad I came around!